FPREN

Update 5:00 PM Monday: The season’s third tropical depression has formed between the Bahamas and Florida.

The National Hurricane Center says it’s located about 120 miles southeast of West Palm Beach as of the 5 PM advisory. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph. The depression is moving toward the northwest at 13 mph.

The depression is not forecast to reach tropical storm status. There are no changes to the forecast of locally heavy rain and gusty winds outlined in the 3 PM update below.

Fewer hurricanes are expected this year than the last two seasons, according to renowned researcher Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University. However, both of those seasons far outperformed expectations.

Even Phil doesn't have much confidence in his forecast this time of year.

“So our skill in April is modest, and that's because the hurricane season doesn't start until June and then doesn't ramp up until August. So obviously there's a lot that could change in the atmosphere and ocean,” he says.

A few strong thunderstorms are possible across the Florida Panhandle Wednesday evening, then across portions of the peninsula early Thursday morning.

The storm system that produced severe thunderstorms across portions of Florida Thursday has a mean back side that will sweep across the state Friday. High winds, dangerous surf, and coastal flooding are possible along all coastlines of the Sunshine State, and gusty winds might also cause minor wind damage in some inland locations.

Update Sunday 1 pm: The National Hurricane Center issued an intermediary update Sunday afternoon to advise that “satellite wind data indicated the depression has strengthened” into a tropical storm and has now acquired the name Michael. The story below has been revised to include this new information.

A tropical depression or storm is likely to form near the Yucatan Peninsula by Monday. It is then forecast to move north and potentially threaten portions of the Florida's Gulf Coast by midweek. Floridians from Pensacola to Tampa should closely monitor the progress of this developing situation.

Florence became a hurricane again Sunday morning, and is forecast to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane by Monday. There is a growing concern that Florence will be a dangerous, slow-moving and significant threat to the Mid-Atlantic states later this week.

A Tornado Watch has been issued for all north & central Florida until 7 pm. The potential exists for a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms capable of producing a tornado, destructive wind gusts up to 70 mph, and hail as large as nickels.

According to the latest data from the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network team of meteorologists, here is when the risk is the greatest for various regions around Florida.

Irma strengthened Monday afternoon to a Category 4 storm, and the latest forecast data suggests the Major Hurricane will approach South Florida this weekend. It was too soon to make or deny that call in the past few days, but it’s now time for all Floridians in a hurricane prone area - no matter which coast you live along - to take Irma seriously.

It has been raining along the southwest coast of Florida for the majority of the past three days. While not nearly as severe or widespread as the flooding in Texas from former Hurricane Harvey, many residents from Bradenton to Naples are finding roads closed and cars stalled because of the high water.

The most active period of the Atlantic hurricane season is quickly approaching, and there are two areas of interest to keep an eye on. Neither system is an immediate threat to Florida, but one in particular could be cause for concern in about a week.

We learned this week that winter isn’t over. Neither are the influences from a near-record El Niño. In their monthly discussion, NOAA said Thursday that the El Niño “will likely weaken and transition to a neutral phase by late spring or early summer”.

The damage, per se, has been done. Record rains and eight tornadoes hit south Florida over a span of two weeks in January. This was followed by a cold snap that sent temperatures below freezing multiple mornings in a row across north Florida.