LISTEN LIVE

el nino

FLORIDA PUBLIC RADIO EMERGENCY NETWORK

A tropical wave is becoming better organized just east of Miami, and the National Hurricane Center says a tropical depression or storm could form this weekend.

El Niño Fading as Heart of Hurricane Season Approaches

Jul 17, 2019

The heart of hurricane season is approaching, and the atmosphere is signaling that the Atlantic Basin could soon become more active.

No development is expected over the next week to ten days. However, later this summer and fall, global-scale climate factors are changing. And this could make conditions more favorable for tropical storm or hurricane development.

Forecasters examine many features when forecasting for the tropics. They include: wind shear, water temperatures, atmospheric dust concentrations, moisture in the air, and global atmospheric circulations.

Federal weather forecasters are predicting a "near normal" number of storms this hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November 1.

Between nine and 15 named storms, including includes tropical storms, are predicted to form in the Atlantic this year, said Neil Jacobs, acting administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Colorado State Meteorologists Forecast Above-Average Hurricane Season

Apr 6, 2018

The initial Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecast released Thursday by Colorado State University calls for a slightly above average 2018 hurricane season, with 14 named storms and seven hurricanes, three of them major storms.

El Niño Has Peaked, So Now What?

Feb 14, 2016

We learned this week that winter isn’t over. Neither are the influences from a near-record El Niño. In their monthly discussion, NOAA said Thursday that the El Niño “will likely weaken and transition to a neutral phase by late spring or early summer”.

The damage, per se, has been done. Record rains and eight tornadoes hit south Florida over a span of two weeks in January. This was followed by a cold snap that sent temperatures below freezing multiple mornings in a row across north Florida. 

Shelters Open As Colder Weather Arrives

Jan 18, 2016
National Weather Service

Cold weather shelters are open across the Tampa Bay area as some of the coldest air of this season arrives. 

The National Weather Service in Ruskin reports lows will be in the upper 30s and low 40s from Lee County north throughout the Tampa Bay region. Freeze warnings are in effect for Wednesday morning for Hernando, Citrus and Levy counties.

We knew El Niño was coming, and earlier today Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, made it official.

"2015's El Niño now ranks third behind 1997 and 1985", said Halpert.

This year's El Niño is shaping up to be a whopper — potentially surpassing the one in 1997, which was the strongest on record, the National Weather Service says.

That could be good news for drought-stricken California, but not-so-good for places such as the Philippines and Indonesia, which typically experience below-normal rainfall or drought conditions during El Niños.

El Niño Might Thwart Hurricane Season

Jul 5, 2012

Last month's Tropical Storm Debbie formed earlier than most big storms, and that had some people worried about this year's hurricane season. But El Niño may be coming to the rescue.

You've probably heard of El Niño. It's that weather phenomenon where parts of the Pacific Ocean warm up...and change the weather all across the United States.

Weather forecasters are saying El Niño may be forming out in the Pacific right now.

If that happens, Bay News 9's meteorologist Juli Marquez said, "it may prevent as many storms or hurricanes from forming or intensifying."

Colorado State University

Hurricane researchers at Colorado State University, lead by William Gray and Philip Klotzbach, predict below-average activity in the Atlantic basin during the upcoming hurricane season.

The prediction is based on two factors: a cooling of tropical Atlantic waters in recent months, and a return of El Nino in the Pacific Ocean.  

Hurricane season begins June 1st.