National Hurricane Center

A large, slow-moving Category 4 storm like Hurricane Ian would push a catastrophic surge across much of coastal Miami-Dade many times worse — and extending much farther inland — than Irma did in 2017.

As federal agencies and local governments reassess flood zones and incorporate new technology, data on sea-level rise and the fact that the concrete jungle doesn’t absorb as much water as the natural environment, they’ve concluded that vast swaths of South Florida — particularly inland areas — are vulnerable to crippling storm surge and flooding from rain.

The Hurricane Hunters have their mission down to a science while focused on advancing these scientific efforts.

In 2010 the Southwest Florida county changed from a ‘Just in Case’ to a ‘Just in Time’ protocol for emergency management to avoid “over-evacuation.” The protocol was followed — with potentially deadly consequences.

The Hurricane Hunters provide surveillance of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico and the central Pacific Ocean for the National Hurricane Center. The unit also flies other missions during the hurricane “off-season” to investigate winter storms off both coasts of the U.S.

Hurricane Ian came ashore with devastating near-Category 5 winds that peeled the roofs off homes and uprooted trees.

The devastation began to come into focus a day after Ian made landfall as one of the strongest hurricanes ever to hit to the U.S. The storm flooded homes on both coasts, cut off the only bridge to Sanibel, destroyed the historic Naples pier and knocked out electricity to 2.5 million homes and businesses. At least one man was confirmed dead.

Hurricane Ian made landfall near Cayo Costa with winds at 150 mph. Storm surges could push as much as 12 to 18 feet over a nearly 100-mile stretch of coastline, from Bonita Beach north through Fort Myers and Charlotte Harbor to Englewood. Rainfall near the area of landfall could top 18 inches.

The center of Ian is forecast to move over central Florida Wednesday night and Thursday morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday.

The center of Ian is expected to move near or over western Cuba overnight into early Tuesday. Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, pass west of the Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach the west coast of Florida on Wednesday into Thursday.

While it appears to have shifted to the west as of Sunday morning, forecasters warn Ian's long-term forecast could change.

Hurricane season doesn’t officially start until June 1, but in recent years named storms have been popping up ahead of schedule more and more often.