hurricane forecasting

Forecasters at the Colorado State University Tropical Weather and Climate Research Group say the 2023 season could feature below average storm activity. They also report that the forecast could change over the next few months.

The National Hurricane Center said in an update of its products that two-day outlooks will still be available in addition to the new seven-day outlook.

On this week's Florida Roundup, we discuss Florida's troubled property insurance industry, along with Andrew Warren's trial against Gov. DeSantis and how hurricane forecasting could change.

The Hurricane Hunters provide surveillance of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico and the central Pacific Ocean for the National Hurricane Center. The unit also flies other missions during the hurricane “off-season” to investigate winter storms off both coasts of the U.S.

Researchers have begun holding workshops after a statewide survey found widespread misunderstanding of the forecast cone that's been used for 20 years.

One said meteorologist with the National Weather Service would be "failing in our jobs if we did not use this event as an opportunity to learn and also to capture how significant and how deadly the impacts have been in this area.”

Spaghetti models are a combination of different model ensembles. It shows the different paths a storm may take, but neither is it a crystal ball.

“Not anywhere in the past have we had six consecutive seasons above normal,” Rosencrans said.

Hurricane experts say forecasting storm intensity remains a big challenge. That’s especially true in an era of climate change that scientists say is likely producing more powerful and deadly storms.

Meteorologists say there will be at least 19 named storms during the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane season. This forecast could make it more difficult for flights going through Florida, especially if the planes don't have the proper equipment.

More than two-thirds of the accumulated energy of all tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes occur between Aug. 15 and Oct. 15 in the Atlantic Basin, including the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.

Most forecasters say 2021 is shaping up to be another above-normal season, but likely not as busy as the record breaking 2020 hurricane season.