© 2022 All Rights reserved WUSF
News, Jazz, NPR
Play Live Radio
Next Up:
0:00
0:00
Available On Air Stations

Economist: Odds Of A Recession In Florida Are Increasing

Spending goes down during a recession. State analysts say Florida's economy is showing signs of slowing down.
Spending goes down during a recession. State analysts say Florida's economy is showing signs of slowing down.
Spending goes down during a recession. State analysts say Florida's economy is showing signs of slowing down.
Credit Marcin Kempa/Unsplash
/
Spending goes down during a recession. State analysts say Florida's economy is showing signs of slowing down.

Analysts say chances are increasing that Florida will enter a recession soon.

“Currently, Florida’s probability of being in a recession in the next 9 months is 34.2%,” says Florida Chamber Foundation Chief Economist Jerry Parrish.

The number is from The Florida Scorecard, the chamber foundation’s online tool that identifies and tracks key metrics important to Florida’s economy.

“It doesn’t mean we’re destined to have a recession, but the reduction in business investment that’s happening along with the global slowdown do increase the odds of it happening,” Parrish says. He updates Florida’s chances of recession each month.

The August number is way up from the April probability of 20.8%. Parrish points to a recent yield curve inversion, a key signal of a looming recession. That’s when long term interest rates are lower than short term rates.

The Florida Chamber Foundation tracks monthly metrics that predict the odds of a recession.
Credit Florida Chamber Foundation
/
The Florida Chamber Foundation tracks monthly metrics that predict the odds of a recession.

His analysis considers job growth around the state. He says hurricane-damaged areas that are still struggling may not have time to dig out before the economy takes a dive.

“Bay and Gulf counties both have losses of 3.1 percent of their jobs over the past year and have not recovered from Hurricane Michael,” Parrish says.

It’s not all bad news for the state. Parrish says the jobless rate continues to drop, Florida is gaining 900 residents a day, and the population has climbed to 21.6 million.

Copyright 2020 WFSU. To see more, visit .

Gina Jordan is the host of Morning Edition for WFSU News. Gina is a Tallahassee native and graduate of Florida State University. She spent 15 years working in news/talk and country radio in Orlando before becoming a reporter and All Things Considered host for WFSU in 2008. She left after a few years to spend more time with her son, working part-time as the capital reporter/producer for WLRN Public Media in Miami and as a drama teacher at Young Actors Theatre. She also blogged and reported for StateImpact Florida, an NPR education project, and produced podcasts and articles for AVISIAN Publishing. Gina has won awards for features, breaking news coverage, and newscasts from contests including the Associated Press, Green Eyeshade, and Murrow Awards. Gina is on the Florida Associated Press Broadcasters Board of Directors. Gina is thrilled to be back at WFSU! In her free time, she likes to read, travel, and watch her son play football. Follow Gina Jordan on Twitter: @hearyourthought
WUSF 89.7 depends on donors for the funding it takes to provide you the most trusted source of news and information here in town, across our state, and around the world. Support WUSF now by giving monthly, or make a one-time donation online.